Is $500 silver to low of a price target?

We get a lot of questions as to how high the silver price can go. Many times the prediction  is widely outrageous like $500/oz. or $1,000/oz. But really, if you look at history from past booms, the commodity never even appreciated anywhere near the rate at which the person is predicting. A wild price target is picked without much analysis.

A proper macro investment manager wants to look at all scenarios in an investment. A best case scenario, a base case scenario, and a worst case scenario. Otherwise known as “the good, the bad, and the ugly”. 

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Why do a range?

It gives you a sense on the upside potential and downside in your portfolio, because you know your estimate will be wrong. It is foolish say silver will be $X/Oz, especially when it is a 50X prediction for the commodity when it never appreciated from the bottom to the top of the cycle by more than 10X. This isn’t helpful for investors.

How high does silver appreciate from the low to the top?

We recently did an analysis as to how much silver increased across a number of cycles. The numbers speaks for themselves, not widely outrageous predictions. We look at 3 major silver cycles. Continue reading our analysis.

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